Canada Immigration Update – October 2025

Canada Immigration Update – October 2025 Snapshots: Canada’s immigration system is shifting under fresh pressures of growth, backlog, and policy reset. Below are the key developments, revealed last month, from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), along with related commentary — providing clear takeaways for applicants and advisors.

What’s changing at IRCC

On October 20 and 22, major signals emerged:

• Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that a reduction in temporary‑resident numbers is imminent — within “2–3 weeks”. Immigration News Canada

• On October 22, legal commentary flagged that Bill C-12 would give IRCC expanded power to cancel or suspend pending applications, most notably under the Canada Start-Up Visa Program. Approximately 15,000–25,000 files associated with non-compliant incubators may be at risk. Canada Immigration Services

• Meanwhile, IRCC’s latest published processing times (published October 4) show mixed trends:

  • For major skilled‑worker categories (Express Entry) the target remains ~6 months. CIC News+1

  • For enhanced Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP aligned with Express Entry) ~7 months; base PNP streams ~19 months. CIC News

Take‑away: If you’re in a high‑skilled or Express Entry‑aligned stream, timelines remain stable and priority. If you’re in a business or startup immigration route, the risk is rising. For temporary-resident applicants (students, workers, and visitors), an upcoming shift in numbers may impact planning.

Key numbers to watch

• IRCC’s next Immigration Levels Plan 2026–2028 will be published end of October 2025 and is expected to set the tone for future intake targets. Canada Immigration Services+1

• New international‑student entries from Jan–Aug 2025: ~89,430, down nearly 60 % from ~221,940 in the same period 2024. August alone saw ~45,380 vs 79,795. The Economic Times

• Recent Express Entry draw (#372 on 14 Oct 2025) invited 345 PNP candidates with a cut‑off score of 778 (down 77 points from prior draw). Pool size: 248,342 as of 13 Oct 2025. mesidorimmigration.ca

Take‑away: Big changes are underway – student numbers are collapsing, draw volumes remain resilient in the skilled stream, and intake targets are about to be reset. Applicants and advisors must monitor the interplay between policy and volume.

Student arrival slump

The nearly 60% drop in new study permit arrivals will have ripple effects: fewer students mean less demand for housing, reduced university funding, and a smaller labour market pipeline for post-study work permits. Canada’s international‑education strategy appears to be shifting. The Economic Times

Take‑away: If your plans involve studying in Canada with a view to working or settling, you must anticipate a more competitive context and perhaps tighter rules or fewer seats.

What this means for you

• Skilled‑worker applicants: Good news — Express Entry and aligned streams continue to move at or near target times (~5–6 months).

• Entrepreneurs/start-ups: Caution — Bill C-12 may affect thousands of applicants, especially those using incubators that do not meet compliance thresholds. Validate your designated partner.

• Temporary residents & students: The reduced intake forecast means planning ahead is more important than ever; timelines may shift.

• Advisors/consultants: Update your clients now — reinforce that “business as usual” may not apply for some streams; highlight the volatility in temporary‑resident categories and prepare contingency plans.

Canada Immigration Update – October 2025